DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/14 10:45
Grains Seeing Double-Digit Gains at Midday
Corn is 11 to 12 cents higher, soybeans is 15 to 17 cents higher and wheat
is 13 to 19 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 220 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.17 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer
with crude up $2.50. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down $12.00.
Corn trade is 11 to 12 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action as
strong nearby demand ideas continue to carry trade. New crop is at new highs
with a cooler stretch likely to limit near-term progress. The weekly ethanol
report showed production down 34,000 barrels per day and stocks were 124,000
barrels per day, helping to support cash ethanol values. Corn basis continues
to hold firm throughout the belt. Double-crop progress in Brazil looks to have
mixed weather for most, with early growth seeming to be OK for now and the
start of the dry season fast approaching. On the May contract. chart resistance
is the contract high at $5.95, with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.85 now just
below the market, then the 20-day at $5.59 as support.
Soybeans are 15 to 17 cents higher at midday with trade likely to continue
to chop along until we get a more sustained move from one of the products to
lead the complex. South America is still moving forward on harvest, and
November is gaining a bit against corn Wednesday morning, with overall spread
action firm. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 1.05 cents to 1.15 cents
higher. South America is expected to continue harvest progress in Brazil with
little overall weather change short term and Argentina looking stable short
term. The May soybean chart has resistance the 20-day at $14.07, which we are
just above at midday, with support the lower Bollinger Band at $13.78.
Wheat trade is 13 to 19 cents higher at midday with spillover support from
corn helping to offset expected rain in Kansas in the short term, especially
for corn as feed demand could shift further to wheat. The downtrend in the
dollar is supportive to buying as well. Weather in the Plains has some cold in
it as well, but threats look limited so far. KC has narrowed back to a 46-cent
discount to Chicago with Minneapolis 18 cents above Chicago. KC May on the
chart has support at the 20-day at $5.76 that we held Wednesday, with $5.99 the
next level of resistance where we find the upper Bollinger Band, which we are
just above at midday.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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